Senate Releases Their Reconciliation Bill

New bill, same winners and losers.

Last night, Senate committees finished releasing their versions of the Republican megabill the House passed last month. Below, we’ll walk through what’s in it, how to think about it, and what happens next.

How to think about Senate Republicans’ goals

Senate GOP leaders have two priorities as they fine-tune their proposals and pitch the revamped megabill to their colleagues:

• Make it sound as though the bill has changed enough to satisfy Senate Republicans who had qualms with the House bill.

• Make it sound as though the bill remains mostly the same to placate House Republicans, who will have to approve the Senate’s changes.

Is this a tricky balance to strike? Absolutely, and it won’t be made easier if/when the Senate’s parliamentarian rules that some provisions don’t mass muster under reconciliation’s rules.

Ultimately, though, Republican leaders are probably going to fall back on the same argument for GOP naysayers, no matter their position: “are you really going to be the person who holds up the President’s agenda when we’re so close to the finish line?” If last month’s House vote is any indication, this could be an effective tactic.

Its effectiveness may hinge on:

• Whether and how the Senate’s initial proposals evolve in the coming weeks.

• The extent to which the President engages personally to cajole resistant Republicans, as he did in the House.

New bill, same winners & losers

Despite these dynamics and the rhetoric you might hear as a result, the Senate’s bill is by no means a “more moderate” version of the House’s.

This bill would still:

• Give more to the very richest Americans and take from those who have the least.

• Pay for tax giveaways to the rich and corporations by taking health care and food assistance from families.

• Funnel billions to the already-bloated Pentagon budget.

• Create a slush fund to tear apart immigrant families in violation of the law.

Below are highlights from some of the latest analyses of the GOP megabill:

• The ultra-rich gain while the rest of us lose. The poorest 10 percent of households would lose an estimated $1,600 a year, while the richest 10 percent would gain about $12,000 a year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Another analysis from Yale’s Budget Lab found that the House-passed bill would reduce incomes for the vast majority of U.S. households—specifically, the bottom 80 percent—when coupled with the President's ineffective approach to tariffs.

• Giveaways to the wealthy and corporations come from taking health care and food assistance from millions. An estimated 16 million people would lose their health insurance, while 8 million would be at-risk of losing food assistance under the Republican megabill.

What’s next:

It’s important to remember that Republicans are using what used to be a fairly unusual legislative maneuver — reconciliation — to skirt the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster. To do that, the House and Senate must agree to pass the exact same bill, down to the letter, in both chambers.

And based on the bill Senate Republicans just released, there are major differences between their bill and the bill that passed the House. Additionally, vulnerable senators are concerned about draconian cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.

There are no easy fixes for Republican leadership here. The divides are so deep, and the cuts so politically toxic, that we have a real shot at flipping four votes to stop reconciliation in the Senate outright, just like we did in 2017.

Even if a bill does squeak through the Senate, it’ll be significantly different from what the House just voted on. That means another tough round of deal-making, infighting, and politically risky votes for House Republicans (with no guarantee of success). Remember: House Republicans had a very hard time passing their version of the bill, with it failing to come out of the House Rules Committee and Donald Trump having to strong-arm Republican holdouts.

MAGA Republicans will be furious that some of their most harmful, extremist ideas got changed and that the bill still doesn’t go far enough in spending cuts. Swing-seat Republicans will be furious they need to vote twice to cut Medicaid and SNAP, especially since the Senate changed several concessions Johnson promised to secure their yes votes in the first place. And Trump will be furious he’s not simply getting his way, instantly and unquestioningly.

If that happens — and if we keep relentless pressure on vulnerable Republicans — the bill may never pass the House a second time. Getting it across the finish line in one chamber took a herculean effort. Passing it again, with two chambers involved and weeks of additional pressure, will be even harder.

What about the July 4 deadline?

Republicans are trying to work with an ambitious timeline to get the bill through Congress by July 4 so Trump can sign it on Independence Day.

Here is what that timeline could look like:

Again this is a very ambitious schedule and we are dubious that passage by July 4 is possible. We are likely looking at potential Senate passage of the bill at the end of July before the August recess. After that it gets kicked back to the House.

This fight isn’t over, and this bill can still be stopped!

Here’s what you can do right now:

1. We can defeat the bill outright in the Senate by pressuring four Senate Republicans into abstaining or voting against it.

2. Since the Senate changed the House passed version of the bill, it’ll go back to the House for another vote, giving us a second chance to block it there.

Whether we stop the reconciliation bill in the Senate or in the House, there’s no doubt we can still win this fight! But we’ll need to ratchet up pressure on Republicans in both chambers right now.

And here’s how we can do that:

• Share this post on social media as well as other content we are pushing out. We are on Twitter, Facebook, Bluesky, Instagram, TikTok, and Threads.

• Write a letter to the editor to your local paper. Use our tool kit for guidance. If your letter isn't published, post it on social media and share with your personal network.

• Call your two Senators demand they oppose this destructive bill. Script is below and you can find your two Senators at this link.

• You can also call your representative in the House. If they voted against this megabill, thank them and let them know they did the right thing. If they voted for it, express your anger and let them know you plan to hold them accountable in the 2026 midterms.

Your Script:

Hi, my name is [NAME] and I’m a constituent from [CITY, STATE].

I’m calling to urge Sen. [NAME] oppose the the recently released budget reconciliation bill and its harmful cuts to vital government programs.

[OPTIONAL]: Specifically, I’m very concerned about… [PICK 1-3 budget provisions]

• the cuts to SNAP, (and)

• the cuts to Medicaid, (and)

• the cuts to student aid, (and)

• the cuts to Planned Parenthood, (and)

• the partisan attack on federal regulations, (and)

• the cuts to federal worker retirement benefits, (and)

• the tax breaks for people buying gun silencers, (and)

• the defunding of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, (and)

• the roll back of the Inflation Reduction Act's climate-focused programs, (and)

• the limit on federal judges’ ability to hold the Trump administration accountable.

Congress should pass a fair and responsible budget that helps working families and communities, not one that slashes our benefits to fund tax cuts for the wealthy.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

IF LEAVING VOICEMAIL: Please leave your full street address to ensure your call is tallied.